“ALL HOPE IS LOST”

CREDO SuperPAC

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If I were writing from a different political organization that sends you multiple fundraising emails almost every day, I might tell you right now that "ALL HOPE IS LOST."

But I believe CREDO activists deserve a real explanation of why it looks like we're in so much trouble in the Senate – and why your support right now can make the difference to save it:

  1. As you've probably heard, if the polls are right, we will lose the Senate in less than three weeks.
  2. But usually, the polls are not exactly right. They tend to skew each year toward one party or the other.
  3. In a race this close, that matters – a lot. If the polls are biased toward Republicans right now by just 1%, this race is back to a coin toss. If by 2%, we have a 77% chance of stopping a Republican takeover of the Senate, according to 538's Nate Silver.1

The polls make assumptions about who is and is not a likely voter. And in their models they are counting out many of the progressives who voted for President Obama in 2012 but don't typically vote in midterm elections. It all comes down to how many of those voters CREDO SuperPAC can reach and move to the polls. Ballots are already being mailed out in key states – please chip in now.

If you've saved your payment information with ActBlue Express, your donation will go through immediately:

Express Donate: $5

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How likely is it that the polls are skewed? In nine of the last 12 election years, the polls have been skewed by nearly 1% or more. Four times oversampling Democrats, five times oversampling Republicans. In 2012, Senate polls showed a 3.4% bias toward Republicans.

This doesn't mean we are not going to lose. It means despite the grim polls and grim math, Senate control can still go either way.

Our field offices are going huge right now. We've got local volunteers coming in every day – and they've already made nearly half a million calls and knocked on the doors of 34,000 key progressive voters. But we need to go much bigger in the final weeks.

All hope is NOT lost. But as we work to scale up our voter contact operation your support makes a huge difference right now.

If you've saved your payment information with ActBlue Express, your donation will go through immediately:

Express Donate: $5

Express Donate: $15

Express Donate: $50

Express Donate: $100

Or donate another amount.

Thanks for all you do.

Becky Bond, President
CREDO SuperPAC

1. "The Polls Might Be Skewed Against Democrats — Or Republicans," FiveThirtyEight, 10/15/14

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